Why analysts are dismal about tourist spending in Hong Kong

It can't even buoy domestic weakness.

According to UBS, slower private consumption—driven by the waning of wealth effects as the property market corrects—is one of the major macro assumptions for Hong Kong next year.

By extension, the retail sector, with the share of resident sales still constituting 60% of the total, should also see a slowdown in 2014 after the moderate pick up this year.

Here's more from UBS:

We expect nominal retail sales to expand 7-8% next year, down from an estimated 11% in 2013.

Year-on-year sales growth could even temporarily dip into negative territory for a couple of months in 1H14, as the base of comparison was artificially inflated by the rush demand for gold in 1H13.

Will tourist spending be robust enough to offset the domestic weakness?

The most probable answer is no. Capacity constraints and the lack of positive policy (in the forms of scope expansion on Chinese individual visitor scheme or further simplification of visa process for the Chinese tourists) suggest that tourist arrivals and therefore tourist related sales should ease somewhat in 2014.