Gross gaming revenues down 3.6% y/y in July

The World Cup might be to blame.

Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for July 2014 was down 3.6% y/y to MOP28.415bn (HK$27.587bn), with the July y/y decline is similar to the 3.7% y/y decline in June.

According to a research note from Barclays, it believes both months might have seen a negative impact due to the World Cup. Current year-to-date GGR growth is at 10.2% y/y.

Barclays' forecast for full-year 2014 stays at 9.9% GGR growth, with 0.5% VIP growth and 28.1% mass growth (mass table revenue +31% and slot revenue +7.8% y/y).

It expects overall mass growth in 2H14 to be strong at 25% y/y (mass table revenue +27% and slot revenue +9%), and it assumes a 2% y/y decline in VIP revenue in 2H14.

Here's more from Barclays:

Macau's Secretary for Economy and Finance, Francis Tam, said he expects full-year gaming growth to be in single digit (source: Bloomberg, 1 August 2014).

If GGR growth were to miss our estimate, we believe the shortfall would more likely be on the more volatile VIP side (more volatile as it could be impacted by junket liquidity and the anti-corruption environment in China) than the mass segment.

We continue to prefer the more mass-exposed names, Sands China (OW; 1928.HK) and Melco Crown (OW; MPEL.US).

We also like Galaxy (OW; 27.HK) as we believe Galaxy could be the operator with the earliest new casino opening in 1H15.